Oh, I am. Until the party laughs at the mere possibility of some of the candidates and causes they've been presenting, they're the enemy. Their platform is anti-womens' rights, anti civil rights, anti education, anti poor people, anti gay rights, and, well, pro anything that helps rich white guys. What's not to trust?
which polls have McCain and Obama equal? the link provided states they are "close", but no data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html) was provided to support their claim. you say that you appreciate objectivity but you quote blogs that are clearly partisan.
I am grateful someone in the media is being objective about Obama. Most of the media seems to be blindly worshipping him.
And read this. (http://wlotus.livejournal.com/1181140.html?thread=5179604#t5179604) My blog is not the place for disagreement on this political subject.
The Associated Press poll, it's been widely reported all over the news media, just two percentage points. And unlike most of the other polls, their poll actually got the responses of a more than a handfull of people statistically. The polls showing a wide margin have had samples of less than 100 people and 80% hang up rates. The truth is, it is very close to a tie when you can actually get a sample of any size.
like the AP poll (http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%20Poll%203%20Topline%20FINAL%20trunc.pdf), Gallup's presidential surveys are conducted with a sample size no fewer than 1,000. their data (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111436/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Keeps-Lead-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx) suggests a significant lead, at least greater than the sampling error. but it is always better to have more than one source. Rasmsussen, reports (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) similar figures, with a full sample of 3000 people over three night. but i guess it depends on what you a consider a wide margin.
AP poll is based on a likely voter model vs registered voter model. This only proves that when you adjust your models to assume that none of the newly registered voters will actually vote, sure enough, Obama's lead disappears.
But, meh, I don't mind the error in this basic statistical concept is all spin, maybe it will offset complacency.
I like listening to Smiley on NPR. I learn quite a lot from his show, and he has a good head on his shoulders. I'd put him on my list of People I'd Enjoy Hanging Out With, too.
I do regularly watch Tavis Smiley's show on my local PBS station. Not all PBS stations play his show, but luckily mine does. I also watch the women's news commentary show- To the Contrary. It's much better than "the View"
I find myself obsessively reading FiveThirtyEight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) when it comes to polling, because the people who run it have some awesome insights about the way polling works and how statistics can be spun one way or the other.
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And read this. (http://wlotus.livejournal.com/1181140.html?thread=5179604#t5179604) My blog is not the place for disagreement on this political subject.
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But, meh, I don't mind the error in this basic statistical concept is all spin, maybe it will offset complacency.
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